Market Data: The exchange rates between Somali Shilling and the United States Dollar (USD) remained Stable

Inflation:SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable in Central; while it changed at mild rates (1-2%) in northeast and south month-on-month. The CPI rose compared to one year ago annually from (5-12%), primarily due to increase in red sorghum prices

SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI remained stable month-on-month but increased year-on-year (12%) due to increase in cereal (mainly red sorghum) price in the past 12 months.

Exchange rate:

SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) indicated relative stability or marginal monthly changes (1-3%) in most regions. The SoSh showed annual depreciation across SoSh-using areas.

SISh-using areas: The SISh indicated stability against the USD in September 2016 compared to previous month and 12 months ago.

Local grain prices changed month-on-month at mild rates (by less than +/- 10%) in most parts of the country except in Middle Shabelle and Banadir (Mogadishu-Bakara) regions where prices declined (17-22) due to increased supply of maize from the recent off season harvest and carry over stock. Annual comparison indicates higher prices for local grains in most regions of the country in September 2016 with the highest increase being recorded in Middle Juba (57%) as a result of poor Gu 2016 production.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild (less than +/- 10%) monthly changes (increases/decreases) in local currency terms. Year- on-year comparison indicates mild to moderate price increases in most regions of the country for most of the imported foof items.

Livestock prices changed at mild rates (less than +/- 10%) month-on-month in most regions of the country. Milk prices (camel and cattle) generally exhibited mildmonthly changes in most regions of the country. However, milk prices declined in Lower Shabelle (11-14%) while it increased (16- 20%) in Bay as a result of reduced supply due to livestock migration away from the urban centers and increased demand. Compared to a year ago, livestock prices were lower in most regions of the country in September as a result of deteriorated livestock body conditions and seasonal reduction in demand. In contrast, milk prices (camel and cattle) increased annually in most regions of the country in September However, Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba milk prices declined (11-30%) annually attributable to normal milk supply and availability in the markets.

Labor (unskilled) wages either remained relatively stable or changed mildly (by less than +/- 10%) month-on-month in most parts of the country. However, labor wages in Banadir decreased by 27 percent due to reduced labor opportunities. Annual comparison indicates mild (less than 10%) changes in labor wages in most parts of the country; with the exeption of Middle Juba and Banadir (Mogadishu-Bakara) where wage rates decline (26-35%) due to reduced farm labor and increased insecurity conditions in Middle Juba and increased labor competition in Banadir compared to last year.

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and local cereals either remained stable month-on-month or changed by 1kg of cereals/daily labor wage in most parts of the country except in Middle Shabelle where ToT increased by 4Kg/daily labor wage due to decrease in white maize prices. ToT between goat and cereals changed at mild rates in most regions of the country. However, ToT increased (34-80 Kg/goat) in Shabelle and Banadir in September as a result of reduced white maize prices. Local goat to cerealToTs are lower compared to a year ago in most regions of the country.

Towns Affected by Trade Disruption (Bulo Burto, Wajid, Hudur and Diinsor)

Labor (unskilled) wages changed mildly (2-5%) month-on-month in all the markets apart from Dinsor where prices increased (12%). Annual comparison indicates

increase in all the markets as a result of increased labor opportunities due to relative improvement in security situation.

Terms of Trade (ToTs) between daily labor wage and local cereals and between local quality goat and cereals remained relatively stable or changed mildly month-on-month in September across the siege-affected towns. Compared to one year ago, ToT between daily labor and cereals exhibited relative stability or mild changes in all of the affected markets. Conversely, the ToT between goat local quality and cereals has reduced year-on-year in all the markets with the highest decrease (171Kg/goat) being recorded in Dinsor as a result of decrease in local quality goat prices.

Local grain (red and white sorghum) prices remained relatively stable or mildly declined month-on-month across the markets. Compared to a year ago, local grain prices are higher in all the markets except in Bulo-burto where white sorghum prices declined by 7 percent.

Prices of imported food items (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) have mildly month-on-month (less than +/- 10%) changed for most of the food imports. Annual comparison indicates higher prices for most of the food imports in all the markets.

 

 

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